It feels like Doug Jones is going to win.
Don’t misunderstand me—I’m not predicting a Jones victory over Republican Tommy Tuberville. I’m not even saying that Jones is winning in polling right now.
But in politics, a lot of times, you can sort of feel when a candidate—especially an underdog candidate—has momentum. When the campaign is rolling and seemingly everything is breaking the right way for him or her. And when everything is breaking the wrong way for the front-runner.
That’s what’s happening right now in the Alabama governor’s race.
Tuberville is bouncing around to quiet, respectful, sip-and-smile luncheons. Jones is standing in front of 1,000 screaming people at rallies or taking questions for an hour and a half at packed-out town halls.
There’s just a different energy.
Jones held another big rally on Sunday in Huntsville. It was packed out, again, with folks crammed into the Mars Music Hall inside the Von Braun Center. Stacey Abrams, the architect of Georgia’s shift to Democrats, was a special guest, and pretty much every major Democratic candidate from the general region was there.
But big town halls and a lot of yard signs don’t always translate into Election Day victories. We’ve seen this play out before, where a popular candidate grabs some momentum, becomes very popular with certain folks and then gets beat soundly at the ballot box, much to the dismay of the energetic throng.
That’s a particularly common pattern in Alabama, where straight-ticket voting often overcomes newfound popularity. It’s one thing to have to fill in the bubble beside an unpopular candidate’s name—a Roy Moore, for example—and quite another to be absolved of that responsibility by simply voting for the political party of choice.
I suspect that’s why we’re seeing so many Republicans—from sheriffs to state lawmakers—begging voters around Alabama to just vote for Republicans and save the state/region/county/city from “turning blue.” When you can’t win on the issues or with good candidates, play up the team aspect.
I’m not sure it’s going to be enough, though. Not this time. Not in this climate. And not with the idiotic campaigns that so many Republicans have been running.
Let’s put this simply: Republicans in this state are going to lose big next month because they’re not used to running campaigns of substance.
Look at their ads. Look at their websites. Look at their public comments. Look at them all running from debates.
Alabama Republicans came into 2026 believing that the same, tired rhetoric would be enough to get them over the finish line. And why wouldn’t they believe that? Voters in this state have been lapping up their insane, ignorant BS for the better part of two decades now, never once questioning why things weren’t improving despite voting them all back in time and time again.
But this year has been different for a few reasons.
First, the face of the Republican Party, and the man every Alabama Republican hitched their campaign wagons to, has been exposed as a con man, a liar, a warmongering, Epstein-files-hiding, out-of-touch goober who’s made everyone’s lives significantly worse. He’s unpopular everywhere, including here in Alabama.
Second, the data center issue caused a number of loyal Republican voters to take a long, hard look at the candidates they’ve been voting for, and many of them decided that the R tag beside a person’s name didn’t mean that much.
And third, Democrats have come to the table with actual solutions and a plan, while Republicans are stuck on insults and scare tactics that aren’t nearly as scary as most folks’ everyday reality.
After all, you can label Medicaid expansion, lowering housing costs and free child care as “socialism” if you want, but to the millions of struggling families around Alabama, it sounds like a lifeline. Especially if there’s absolutely no other plan from the other side to do anything about all of the stuff that they broke.
And that has been the most astonishing thing about this election cycle in Alabama—that Republicans, even the ones who knew they were going to be in competitive races, have not offered up anything of substance to address even the one issue that has been the most important issue to voters in every poll.
Affordability.
Democrats proposed a farm-to-table initiative to help farmers and lower costs for consumers. Democrats proposed at least a temporary cut of the gas tax to help lower costs. Democrats proposed cutting the state and local taxes on groceries, at least temporarily. Democrats have proposed at least 20 other measures to lower costs.
In response, Republicans said: Did we tell you about that transgender Muslim athlete who’s hiding in your bathroom?
It’s ludicrous. And for the first time in a long time, a whole bunch of usually loyal voters have turned against that ignorance.
On top of that, every single day for the last two months, seemingly everything that has happened in this country—from the high prices to the bad economy to the failing farms to the simple inability of almost every working person to live in semi-consistent contentment—has reinforced what Democrats have been preaching.
Is all of it—the screaming crowds and good vibes, the solid policies and good candidates, the better ground game and better message—enough to overcome all of the factors that create such a barrier to success for Democrats in Alabama? I honestly don’t know.
But man, it sure feels like it, doesn’t it?
