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PARCA: Population growth despite lower trends in natural change

Alabama’s population grew by 40,000, driven by migration and international immigration, but faces challenges with aging and low birth rates.

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The latest U.S. Census Bureau data reveals that Alabama’s population grew by more than 40,000 between July 2023 and July 2024, reaching nearly 5.16 million. According to an analysis by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama, the surge was likely due to a combination of international and domestic migration in 2024.

While that’s a solid gain, the state ranked 22nd in terms of percentage growth and 24th in absolute numbers of new residents. Alabama’s large gains in migration are a new development. In 2022, only 26,985 new residents moved to the state and in 2023, the number jumped to 41,492. 

Interestingly, the number of people moving to Alabama from other states dropped slightly this year, with about 26,000 new arrivals compared to 2023. This is part of a national trend of slowing domestic migration, meaning fewer people relocate between states. 

However, Alabama did see a boost in international immigration. Around 15,800 people moved to the state from abroad, up from about 13,000 the year before. This is a significant increase compared to the average number of international arrivals between 2010 and 2020.

Despite these gains, Alabama faces challenges regarding natural population change. The number of deaths now exceeds the number of births in the state, a trend that started with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Between July 2023 and 2024, there were an estimated 57,541 births in Alabama compared to an estimated 59,273 deaths in the state.

This has continued due to an aging population and a younger generation that is having fewer children. The average age of an Alabama resident sits just below 40 years old. Additionally, Alabama’s shorter life expectancy and relatively high death rate—due to a variety of negative health factors—contribute to the state’s slower population growth.

Alabama’s birth rate is higher than the national average, but it still lags behind other states with younger populations or higher levels of international immigration. The state also has one of the lowest rates of international immigration in the U.S., ranking 43rd overall.

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The Southeastern U.S. is one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, and while Alabama’s growth is steady, it falls in the middle of the pack compared to its neighbors. States like Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee have all seen much faster growth rates. 

On the other hand, Alabama has outpaced Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Kentucky in population gains. So, while Alabama is growing, it’s doing so at a slower pace than many other parts of the Southeast, partly due to its aging population and relatively low levels of international migration. Still, the state’s ability to increasingly attract new residents shows some promise for the future.

Mary Claire is a reporter at APR.

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