Carl leads Moore in tight 1st Congressional District primary: poll

In the upcoming Republican primary for Alabama’s First Congressional District, a new AUM Poll reveals a competitive race between two sitting U.S. House Representatives, Jerry Carl and Barry Moore. Conducted by Auburn University at Montgomery’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration in collaboration with the University of Georgia’s Survey Research Center, the poll indicates that Carl is currently leading Moore by eight points, with a 43 percent to 35 percent advantage among likely Republican voters. This heated contest comes in the wake of a federal mandate for Alabama to establish a new majority-black congressional district, resulting in the redrawing of district boundaries and pitting the incumbents against each other.

Despite the challenges of a redrawn district, Carl appears to hold a slight edge, retaining a larger share of his original electorate compared to Moore. The poll also highlights the strategic battle to claim the title of the more conservative candidate, a significant factor given the district’s Republican lean. Notably, Carl is perceived as the more moderate, mainstream choice, which has influenced voter preferences.

“Respondents certainly view Carl as the more moderate, more mainstream candidate in this race, and that perception is helping to sort voters into either his or Moore’s camp,” said David Hughes, associate professor of political science at AUM and director of the AUM Poll.

“Financial support to Ukraine, for example, is a dividing line in this race,” said Hughes. A total of 51 percent of survey respondents who said that U.S. funding to Ukraine was “about the right amount” supported Carl compared to only 25 percent who supported Moore (a 26-point difference).

The poll’s findings suggest that stance on financial support to Ukraine and opinions on former President Donald Trump significantly sway voter support. Carl has garnered more favor among those who believe U.S. funding to Ukraine is adequate and among respondents with a very unfavorable view of Trump. Additionally, religious views and community type have emerged as critical factors, with non-Evangelical or non-Born-Again Christians and suburban voters showing a strong preference for Carl, while Moore finds more support in rural areas.

This survey, which reached out to 91,642 individuals and received 1,909 responses, provides a snapshot of voter sentiment as the primary approaches. The methodology ensures a representative sample by weighting responses according to demographic factors such as age, race, gender, and education. With a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points, the results underscore the nuances of voter preferences in a race that reflects broader themes of conservatism, incumbency, and local versus national issues within the Republican Party.

Topline Results for AUM Poll of Likely Alabama 1st Congressional District Republican Voters in the March 5, 2024, U.S. House Race:

Sample: Likely Alabama Republican Primary Voters, 1st Congressional District

Sample Size: 1,909 responses out of 91,642 text-message solicitations

Margin of Error at 95 percent Confidence: ±2.2 percentage points

Methodology: Respondents were recruited through probabilistic text-to-web methods and were weighted to reflect a representative sample.

Respondents are weighted according to age, race, gender, and education.

Date Fielded: February 27, 2024