A recent poll of likely voters was released this week showing Walt Maddox may have a stronger position in the Governor’s race than previously thought. The poll was conducted by Cygnal between July 24 and 25, a company owned by Gov. Kay Ivey’s campaign manager.
According to the poll, Gov. Ivey has a lead over Maddox by 13.9 percent (55.5 vs. 41.6 percent). But a closer look at the data reveals that the results may be deceiving.
Even though Ivey collected 71.6 percent of the overall vote from Republicans, Maddox’s numbers showed that 26 percent of those Republican participants are willing to vote for a Democrat rather than the incumbent Republican.
Republican Definite Ivey votes were 61.3 percent to Republican Definite Maddox votes at 20.9. Quick math reveals that some 11 percent of Ivey’s Republican voters are still unsure to only six percent of Maddox’s Republican voters.
Not surprising that Democrats voted primarily for Maddox, but Independents also chose him over Ivey 57 to 43. They were only five percent of the total polled.
Upon further reading of the results, there are some other areas of note.
Both Gallop and Pew figures on Alabama’s distribution of political parties show that Republicans have 50 percent of the votes while Democrats represent 35 and Independents garner 15.
Cygnal’s poll was comprised of 65.8 percent Republicans, 29.1 percent Democrats and five percent Independents. These numbers are drastically different and can also skew the poll results.
The Ethnicity part of the toplines report shows that participants were 69.5 percent White and 21.6 percent African American.
The crosstab for Governor Ballot by Ethnicity, of the 21.6 percent of African American polled, 13.5 percent polled as planning to vote for Ivey. Since most of this demographic are Democrats, this number seems a little higher than is plausible.
Also, a view of the regions polled across the state, only 11.2 percent of the poll was conducted in the 7th Congressional District represented by Rep. Terri Sewell, D. This seems to assume that the voter turnout might be weaker in that part of the state.
When all tallied up, it looks like Maddox may be closing the gap between he and Ivey stronger and faster than anticipated.
